The mark of a coveted free agent is that just about every team’s front office can close its eyes and envision the player perfectly fitting into their lineup or starting rotation.
Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter Kyle Schwarber was a near-perfect signing for the Phillies four years ago, and his $79 million contract proved to be a bargain. His 187 home runs in that time frame were tied with Shohei Ohtani and behind only Aaron Judge for second-most in all of baseball.
Now that Schwarber is back on the open market, the Phillies know they’ll have to pay significantly more, perhaps even double his last contract, to keep the three-time All-Star in town. And because so many other teams can envision him batting in the middle of their lineups, there’s no guarantee he returns.
Schwarber is a native of Middletown, Ohio, and his hometown Cincinnati Reds are starving for offensive firepower. Finances are an issue, as Cincinnati consistently ranks in the bottom half of Major League Baseball in payroll, but if there’s any team motivated enough to pull off a Schwarber heist, it might be the Reds.
On Monday, ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle predicted that the Reds would shock the world and sign Schwarber this week at the MLB Winter Meetings.
“It’s such a perfect fit, and not just because of Schwarber’s ties to Cincinnati,” Doolittle wrote. “The Reds have a real chance to contend in the NL Central with the right upgrade on offense.
“And what an upgrade — Schwarber’s swing is perfect for Great American Ballpark, which has featured more homers from visiting lefty hitters over the past five years than any other venue (including 96 more than Citizens Bank Park). Even at 32, give Schwarber five healthy seasons at that park and he’ll reach 500 career bombs.”
Cincinnati’s largest contract in franchise history was $251 million for Joey Votto, but notably, their biggest free-agent deals were just $64 million each for Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas. It’s a lot harder to outbid someone’s old team to sign them than it is to extend them when they’ve already gotten used to playing in a certain place.
The Reds pulling off this move would immediately redefine their image as a small-market team, but because it would be such a seismic shift, it’s hard to believe in the deal getting done until if and when it actually occurs.
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