A poll from the campaign of Democrat Saikat Chakrabarti—the former chief of staff to Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez—showed Chakrabarti gaining ground against state Senator Scott Wiener in the Congressional race in California’s 11th District.
The new poll released this week pointed to a narrowing race to replace former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who is retiring from Congress at the end of the term. The San Francisco-based district is one of the most progressive districts in the country, so this race is a major test for the political left in California.
The Wiener campaign responded to the poll in a statement to Newsweek.
“Borderline billionaire Saikat Chakrabarti is buying fake polls to inflate his numbers. San Francisco is a city where the population is 1/3 Asian American and we have 40,000 registered Republicans. Yet Saikat’s poll only included people who speak English and omitted GOP voters in a top-2 primary. His campaign even screwed up and listed Saikat as the State Senator in the poll,” the statement reads.
Newsweek reached out to leading candidates in the race for comment via email.
What to Know
When is the California Primary?
The California primary will be held on June 2, 2026.
California uses a nonpartisan primary system in which all candidates, regardless of party, appear on a single primary ballot, and the two candidates who receive the most votes advance to the general election. Early polling suggests the general will be between two Democrats.
This race is unlikely to be competitive; forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify it as Safe Democratic.
The new poll from Data for Progress showed Wiener leading other candidates with 33 percent support, followed by Chakrabarti at 28 percent. San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan placed third at 13 percent. No other candidates received double-digit support. An additional 12 percent were undecided, Mission Local reported.
The poll surveyed 537 likely primary voters from April 3-8 with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
What Has Other Polling Shown?
A previous Data for Progress poll gave Wiener a more significant, 12-point lead over his opponents. The poll of 797 likely voters from March 3-12 showed him with 32 percent support, compared to Chakrabarti’s 20 percent and Chan’s 17 percent.
In January, the pollster found Wiener leading with 37 percent, while Chan followed with 17 percent support. Chakrabarti received only 16 percent support in that survey of 806 likely voters from January 14-22.
Kalshi’s prediction market gives Wiener a 91 percent chance and Chakrabarti an 83 percent chance of advancing from the primary as of 1:18 p.m. on Tuesday. Chan has a 13 percent chance of advancing to the general election. Polymarket gives Wiener a 47 percent chance and Chakrabarti a 25 percent chance of receiving the most votes in the primary; it gave Chan a 6 percent chance of receiving the most votes.
Who Is Saikat Chakrabarti? Founder of Justice Democrats Who Helped Elect AOC
Chakrabarti is a co-founder of the group Justice Democrats, which has helped elect progressive Democrats, including Ocasio-Cortez and Representatives Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib. The group has endorsed nine sitting members of Congress and more than a dozen candidates ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
He also served as Ocasio-Cortez’s chief of staff when she entered Congress, but resigned in August 2019. Ocasio-Cortez has not made an endorsement in the race.
According to his campaign website, Chakrabarti was born in Texas to immigrants from India. He moved to San Francisco after college, before working for Stripe, a financial services company that provides payment processing software for businesses.
Chakrabarti told Newsweek in an interview earlier in April that the party needs to “change” or they will keep losing elections.
“The one thing people don’t like more than Donald Trump is a feckless and ineffective leadership in the party,” he said.
He initially launched a primary campaign against Pelosi, whose retirement drew other well-known Democrats like Wiener and Chan into the race. The district is comprised entirely of San Francisco, a bastion of progressivism, and is unlikely to be competitive for Republicans in the general election. It backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by nearly 68 points in the 2024 presidential election.
Pelosi and Ocasio-Cortez have not always been aligned in Congress. In 2024, Ocasio-Cortez lost a race to become the House Oversight Committee ranking member to Representative Gerry Connolly, who later died. Pelosi was seen as a key figure who lobbied for Connolly. When Ocasio-Cortez was first elected in 2018, Pelosi downplayed her influence, saying that a “glass of water would win with a D next to its name in those districts.”
What Voters Should Watch For Next
Following California’s June 2, 2026, primary, election officials will continue counting vote‑by‑mail and provisional ballots for days, with races not finalized until results are certified in late June or early July, according to the California Secretary of State.
Under the state’s top‑two system, the two highest vote‑getters in races for governor, Congress and most statewide and legislative offices—regardless of party—advance to the November 3 general election, a format that can produce same‑party matchups.
Some local and nonpartisan contests may be decided outright if a candidate tops 50 percent, while others move on.
Once certification is complete, general‑election campaigning is expected to accelerate through the summer, as voters shift their focus to November and the next key deadline, the October 19 cutoff to register for the general election, according to the Secretary of State and the League of Women Voters.
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