Former Democratic Representative Abigail Spanberger held a double-digit lead against Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears in the latest poll of the Virginia gubernatorial race released on Wednesday.
Political scientist Larry Sabato told Newsweek the poll “reinforces the widespread view that, for now at least, the Democrat is well ahead.” Meanwhile, a Spanberger spokesperson told Newsweek it “echoes what Abigail has been hearing from families across the Commonwealth.”
Newsweek reached out to the Earle-Sears campaign for comment via email.
Why It Matters
Virginia’s gubernatorial race in November is a key test for both political parties this year. Once a battleground, Virginia has shifted toward Democrats over the past 20 years, though Republicans have proved competitive in the state’s off-year gubernatorial races.
The election pits Spanberger, a centrist Democrat who previously represented Virginia, against Winsome-Sears, the state’s lieutenant governor, who was elected in 2021. Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin, who narrowly won four years earlier, is ineligible to run for reelection due to term limits.
The race will be a crucial test for Democrats’ messaging in the Trump 2.0 era—and a test of whether Republicans can maintain support from voters who shifted rightward in the 2024 election.
What To Know
The new Virginia Commonwealth University poll gives Spanberger an advantage over Earle-Sears, with 48 percent of respondents saying they plan to vote for the Democratic candidate and only 36 percent backing the Republican.
The poll also found Democrats leading in other statewide races. Democrat Ghazala Hashmi leads Republican John Reid in the race for lieutenant governor by nine points (45 percent to 36 percent), while Democrat Jay Jones leads Republican incumbent Jason Miyares by nine points in the attorney general race (46 percent to 37 percent).
The poll surveyed 809 adults, 764 of whom are registered to vote, from June 19, 2025, to July 3, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.16 percentage points.
Other polls have similarly shown Spanberger with a lead. A HarrisX poll of 1,000 likely voters from May 9 to May 13, 2025, showed Spanberger up four points (52 percent to 48 percent). A Roanoke College poll of 658 Virginians from May 12 to May 19, 2025, showed her up 22 points (48 percent to 26 percent).
Sabato told Newsweek that Spanberger has led every public poll so far.
“This survey just reinforces the widespread view that, for now at least, the Democrat is well ahead,” he said. “Of course, voting doesn’t start until the end of September, and most votes are cast in the last two weeks and on Election Day.”
A key dynamic of the race is Trump’s “deep unpopularity in Virginia” versus Youngkin’s “relative though not overwhelming popularity,” Sabato said.
Virginia, home to many federal workers, is a state that has been hit especially hard by Trump’s cuts to the federal workforce.
Last November, then-Vice President Kamala Harris carried the state by less than six points, down from former President Joe Biden’s 10-point margin of victory in 2020.
Historically, the party out of the White House performs well in the Virginia gubernatorial race. That was the case four years ago, when Youngkin defeated former Governor Terry McAuliffe by fewer than two percentage points.
What People Are Saying
A Spanberger campaign spokesperson told Newsweek: “This poll echoes what Abigail has been hearing from families across the Commonwealth — that the high cost of living continues to be top of mind for Virginians. During this moment of uncertainty, Virginians deserve a Governor who is laser-focused on making life more affordable.
“That’s why Abigail rolled out her Affordable Virginia Plan to lower costs for Virginia families across the board — including healthcare, energy, and housing costs. As the next Governor of Virginia, Abigail will work tirelessly to make sure every Virginian can afford to call the Commonwealth their home.”
Former Virginia Governor L. Douglas Wilder, a Democrat, wrote in the polling report: “Virginia voters are not buying political spin. They want action on the issues that hit hardest: the rising costs of living, threats to women’s rights and immigration policies. The shift from education to economic and personal freedoms shows an engaged electorate.”
Dr. Harry Wilson, interim director for Roanoke College’s Institute for Policy and Opinion Research, wrote in a May poll write-up: “Six months in a gubernatorial election season is an eternity in politics, but one would prefer to be ahead by 17 points. More than a quarter of Virginians are undecided, and there is good news for both candidates.
“Spanberger is obviously leading at this point, and she leads among independents, but a large number of Republicans are undecided, and they will most likely end up voting for Earle-Sears. The favorable rating for Earle-Sears, however, should be cause for concern.”
What Happens Next
The Virginia gubernatorial election is on November 4, 2025. The Cook Political Report currently classifies the race as Lean Democrat, meaning it is “considered competitive races, but one party has an advantage.”
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