AFC South Win Total Odds, Best Bets: Texans Clear Division Favorites

While the AFC North and AFC West each sent at least two teams to the playoffs last year, no one outside of Houston in the AFC South and Buffalo in the AFC East contended for the postseason.

The AFC South boasted multiple playoff teams in both 2019 (Houston, Tennessee) and 2020 (Indianapolis, Tennessee), but only one team from this division has made the playoffs in each of the last four years.

And based on the 2025 NFL preseason win total odds, the AFC South once again looks light on postseason contenders after Houston.

Check out Newsweek Sports Betting later this week for our outlook on the AFC East and the rest of the conference, and also click below for a look at all 16 teams in the NFC.

2025 AFC South Win Total Odds

With 2023 NFL AP Offensive Rookie of the Year CJ Stroud back under center for the Texans this year, it’s no surprise that DeMeco Ryans’ team is projected to boast the highest win total in the division and finish in first place for the third consecutive season.

Best Houston Texans 2025 Win Total Bet

With an impressive young defense led by standout DEs Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter — not to mention an excellent secondary — the Texans boast a high floor.

The question that will determine whether the Texans can improve on their solid finishes the last two years is whether the O-line and offensive coordinator issues from a year ago have been resolved.

Houston replaced OC Bobby Slowik with Nick Caley this offseason. It also made significant changes to its OL, parting ways with veteran left tackle Laremy Tunsil and guards Kenyon Green and Shaq Mason. The Texans signed veteran Cam Robinson to fill in for Tunsil at LT, and they also picked up veteran guard Laken Tomlinson in free agency.

On paper, the Houston O-line might not look like an improvement from the group we saw last year, but it’s hard to be worse than the Texans were in pass protection late in 2024. Average or slightly below-average pass protection should be good enough for Stroud to generate plenty of offense, and if the O-line does improve significantly (yes, that’s a massive if), Houston could easily surpass 9.5 regular-season wins.

There aren’t many over/under win total bets more tempting than the Texans to go over 9.5 wins at plus-money. Remember, they finished 10-7 in Year 1 of the Ryans/Stroud era back in 2023, and they posted the same regular-season record in 2024.

Best bet: Over 9.5 Wins (+105 at FanDuel) — 1 unit

Best Indianapolis Colts 2025 Win Total Bet

The Colts have a mostly solid roster outside of the quarterback position. Still, unless Anthony Richardson and/or Daniel Jones end up massively exceeding expectations, I expect this team to struggle this year.

The Indy defense boasts several quality pieces, including tackles Grover Stewart and DeForest Buckner, plus Charvarius Ward and Kenny Moore on the back end, but unless the Colts defense is dominant, I expect this team to struggle to get to .500.

Best bet: Under 7.5 Wins (-110 at DK, FD) — 1 unit

Best Jacksonville Jaguars 2025 Win Total Bet

The No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, Jags QB Trevor Lawrence, led his team to a playoff win in Year 2 of his career and an 8-3 start in 2023. But Jacksonville collapsed down the stretch in ’23, winning just one of its final six games.

Lawrence and Co. struggled again in 2024. The fomer Clemson star went 2-8 in 10 starts before sitting out most of November, December and January.

Under first-year head coach Liam Coen, the Jags theoretically have a high ceiling if Lawrence gets back on track and/or they can get a big season from rookie WR/CB Travis Hunter. But that being said, for now, I’m going to remain skeptical of a team that is just 2-13 in Lawrence’s last 15 starts dating back to December of 2023.

Best bet: Under 7.5 Wins (+105 at DraftKings) — 1 unit

Best Tennessee Titans 2025 Win Total Bet

While I don’t expect a breakthrough from either the Colts or the Jaguars, I think the Titans have a chance to improve dramatically in 2025 after going 3-14 in Brian Callahan’s first season as head coach a year ago.

The glass half-full case for the Titans revolves around No. 1 pick Cam Ward, who could immediately give this team the best QB play it’s had in a while.

Ward starred at Incarnate Word (2020-21), Washington State (2022-23) and Miami (2024) in college, and he led the Canes to a 10-win season a year ago while throwing for over 4,300 yards and 39 touchdowns.

Behind an O-line that features two recent first-round picks (guard Peter Skoronski and tackle JC Latham), plus three other experienced pieces (former Steeler Dan Moore Jr. at left tackle, Lloyd Cushenberry III at center and Kevin Zeitler at right guard), the 23-year-old Ward could be poised for a solid rookie season.

The Titans also have two solid running backs in Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears, plus a top receiver, Calvin Ridley, who is coming off back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons despite poor QB play.

Tennessee will need its overhauled linebacker group to step up behind a solid D-line led by three-time Pro Bowler Jeffery Simmons and second-year DT T’Vondre Sweat, but as long as this defense can keep games close, I’m bullish on Ward leading the Titans to respectability.

Though they play in a favorable division, the Titans’ non-AFC South featuring the NFC West and the AFC West is tough. Still, I’m high enough on Ward to back this team to get to seven wins, even if it won’t be easy.

Best bet: Titans Over 6.5 Wins (+125 at bet365) — 0.5 units

Newsweek may earn an affiliate commission if you sign up through any links in this article. See the sportsbook operator’s terms and conditions for important details. Sports betting operators have no influence over newsroom coverage.