With all due respect to the last six installments of TNF — all of which featured at least one team that is a long way from postseason contention — we’re overdue for a quality Thursday night game.
Fortunately, even with Texans QB CJ Stroud (concussion) sidelined, tonight’s battle between Buffalo (7-3) and Houston (5-5) promises to be a good one. The matchup between reigning NFL MVP Josh Allen — who enters Week 12 with the third-shortest MVP odds — and the Texans’ incredible defense makes this game appointment viewing. The Bills are 5.5-point favorites at most sportsbooks as of Thursday afternoon.
On the other side of the ball, the biggest question is whether Buffalo’s struggling run defense can slow down a Texans ground game that has been solid or better since a slow start that contributed to Houston dropping its first three games of the season.
Despite Stroud’s absence for most of the last three games, the Texans are 5-2 in their last seven, thanks in large part to a healthy average of 3.7 yards per carry in four of those seven contests.
Below, we’ll break down our favorite Bills vs. Texans player prop bets.
How To Watch Bills vs. Texans
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- TV: Prime Video
HOU RB Woody Marks Longest Rush o13.5 (-122 at FanDuel) — 1 unit
It would be an understatement to say that Texans RB Woody Marks is a popular bet to become the latest back to have a big night against Buffalo’s front seven.
In fact, according to BetMGM’s John Ewing, no player prop bet has gotten more action at BetMGM than Marks to go over 64.5 rushing yards.
But to me, the safest play on Marks is on his longest rush prop, even though I don’t love the price at -122*. The Bills just had one of their worst games of the season against the run, as they gave up 202 yards on the ground to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 11. The Bucs’ 39 carries for 202 yards included a 14-yard rush by Sean Tucker, a 43-yard TD run and an 11-yarder by Rachaad White.
In Week 10, Miami’s De’Von Achane had four rushes of 14 yards or longer, including a 35-yard TD run and a 59-yard rushing TD, plus a 13-yarder.
So far this year, Marks has received at least 10 carries in six games. His longest rush in five of those games went for at least 18 yards, and he had at least one run that covered 11 yards or more in all but one of those contests.
Given his heavy projected workload tonight — his over/under for rushing attempts is set at 15.5 — Marks should get plenty of chances to cash this prop against a defense that has allowed six (!) carries of 14+ yards over the last two weeks.
*With that in mind, if you can find Marks alt longest rush: 14.5 or 15.5 at even- or plus-money, take it.
Best Bills vs. Texans ATTD Bet: James Cook (-115 at DK, FD) — 1 unit
The Bills’ versatile running back has only found the end zone in two of his team’s last six games after opening the year with touchdowns in Weeks 1, 2, 3 and 4.
But although Josh Allen has rushed for seven TDs in the last four weeks for the Bills, I like Cook at close to even-money better than I like Allen at -120 or shorter.
The Texans have allowed TDs to running backs in two of the last three weeks. Jaguars RB Travis Etienne had a 6-yard TD run two weeks ago, and Denver’s RJ Harvey had a 27-yard touchdown catch three weeks ago. Buffalo will almost certainly give Allen a few chances when it gets close to the goal line, but I expect a strong D like Houston’s to make it tough for the Bills to score via Plan A.
So, let’s go with a player who has rewarded “James Cook ATTD” bettors in 19 of his last 26 regular-season games to come through again. It’s also worth noting that Cook has taken 29 of his team’s 59 total red-zone rush attempts this year, including a solid 12 of 34 total team carries from inside the 10. It’s a bit concerning for our chances here that Allen has taken more carries inside the 10 (Allen: 16; Cook: 12) and inside the 5 (Allen 10; Cook: 7), but Cook also has a chance to secure a valuable red-zone target or two.
That’s especially true with Keon Coleman, who is second on the team in red-zone targets, set to be on the bench tonight. Another top red-zone target for Allen, No. 1 tight end Dalton Kincaid — who has drawn three red-zone targets — has already been ruled out due to a hamstring injury.
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