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Last week’s win over Auburn marked the third time this year that they have won outright as an underdog of a touchdown or more. On the season, Vanderbilt is 7-2 ATS, and it has obliterated the spread by 20-plus points (!) in wins over Virginia Tech, Alcorn State, and Alabama.
Vandy has been the underdog in six of its nine games this year. It won four of those games outright, and it lost by just a field goal as at least a 17-point underdog against both Missouri and Texas.
This pick is all about our respect for the live home ‘dogs in this matchup, as South Carolina is a physical team led by an elite young D-line. In addition to last Saturday’s shocking beatdown of Texas A&M, the Cocks also dropped a couple massive near-upsets that they were unlucky to lose against LSU and Alabama.
But we trust Pavia to find a way to keep this game close in Nashville, where the Commodores already notched wins over Virginia Tech and Bama.
Last week, we gave out Vanderbilt to cover and recommended a sprinkle on them to win at Auburn. While this week’s opponent is much tougher, we’re going to stick with that formula.
Vanderbilt +6.5 (-110): 1 unit
Vanderbilt moneyline (+190 at bet365): 0.25 units
North Texas +3 (-110) bet365
No. 25 Army vs. North Texas, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN 2)
Led by outstanding running QB Bryson Daily, Army (8-0, 6-0 American) is undefeated and ranked No. 25 in the College Football Playoff poll. The stakes are sky-high for this team, which has blown out just about every opponent this season, including Air Force in a 20-3 win last Saturday with Daily on the sidelines with an undisclosed injury.
Daily’s uncertain status for this game is the biggest reason we like North Texas (5-3, 2-2 American), which is averaging over 40 points per game thanks to a top-10 passing attack led by QB Chandler Morris.
North Texas is coming off back-to-back close, high-scoring losses to Memphis and Tulane, but the potential absence of Daily makes the Mean Green a tempting dog.
Clarity on Daily’s availability probably won’t come until just before kickoff, but based on line movement this week (Army opened as a 4-point favorite and is now favored by just 2.5 at some books), we doubt he’ll be at 100 percent. With that in mind, we like North Texas to cover this spread, if not win outright.
North Texas +3 (-110): 1 unit
North Texas moneyline (+125): 0.5 units
Syracuse ML (+106) FanDuel
Syracuse vs. Boston College, 12 p.m. ET (The CW Network)
This line opened as a pick-em at most sportsbooks, but it’s since moved in favor of the home team.
BC memorably whipped FSU back in Week 1 and jumped out to a 4-1 start under first-year head coach Bill O’Brien that included a close loss to now-No. 24 Missouri. But the Eagles (4-4, 1-3 ACC) are now on a three-game losing streak that includes a 24-14 loss to Virginia, a 42-21 loss to Virginia Tech and a close loss to Louisville, 31-27.
The Orange (6-2, 3-2 ACC) have struggled to get stops at times this year, but they’re coming off an impressive overtime win over Virginia Tech, and their quarterback has quietly been outstanding.
You may have forgotten about ex-Buckeye QB Kyle McCord if you don’t follow the ACC, but he’s led his team to a solid campaign thus far. Cuse averages 31.8 points per game and it has one of the best passing offenses in the country (349 yards per game) thanks to McCord, who has already thrown for 2,761 yards and 21 TDs in eight games.
As long as McCord can avoid turnovers — he’s thrown 12 picks this year, including five against Pittsburgh a couple weeks ago — the Orange are a great bet to pull the slight upset here.
Syracuse moneyline (+106): 1 unit
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