Democrats' Chances of Flipping Congress From Republican Control Next Year

Democrats are building an early lead in congressional polling ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, but it’s yet to be seen whether the party’s momentum can be enough amid the threat of mid-decade redistricting.

Viet Shelton, spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, told Newsweek that Democrats are confident they will “re-take the majority powered by an aggressive message focused on fighting for lowering prices and holding Republicans and Trump accountable for their record of broken promises.”

Newsweek also reached out to the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) for comment via email.

Why It Matters

The midterms are still more than a year away, so early polls are far from definitive. Still, they are an important gauge of voter sentiment about both Democrats and Republicans as candidates begin ramping up their campaigns.

Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in the midterms, and recent polls show President Donald Trump’s approval has fallen since the start of his administration, fueling Democratic optimism about a 2018-esque blue wave. But several GOP-led states may redraw their congressional boundaries to become more favorable to Republicans in an attempt to thwart Democratic gains.

While blue states like California say they will redraw their own maps to retaliate, the full impact of these mid-decade redraws in states like Texas or Missouri could limit Democratic gains in November 2026.

What To Know

A flurry of recent polls have delivered good news for Democrats, showing them ahead of Republicans on the generic ballot, which asks voters which party they’ll be supporting, rather than specific candidates.

A CNBC poll released Thursday, for instance, showed Democrats with a 5-point lead on the generic ballot. Forty-nine percent of respondents said they would vote for Democratic candidates, while 44 percent said they’d back Republicans. That’s up from a lead of 48 percent to 44 percent in April.

The poll surveyed 1,000 adults nationwide from July 29 to August 3. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

The latest poll from YouGov and The Economist showed Democrats up 6 percentage points—44 percent to 38 percent. It surveyed 1,528 registered voters from August 1 to August 4.

An Emerson College poll showed Democrats with a more modest 2-point lead—44 percent to 42 percent. It surveyed 1,400 registered voters on July 21 and July 22, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

For context, in 2024, Republicans won the House popular vote by about 2.6 points and won a 220-215 majority. In 2022, Republicans won the popular vote by 2.7 points and secured a 222-213 majority.

In 2020, Democrats won the popular vote by 3.1 points and also had a 222-213 majority.

In 2018, the midterm of Trump’s first term in office, Democrats won a 235-199 majority, picking up 41 seats.

These polls show a lead for Democrats, but are not predictive of a blue wave like in 2018, Raymond La Raja, professor of political science and co-director of University of Massachusetts Amherst’s polling program, told Newsweek.

This is because Trump is more of a “quantified figure” to voters this time around, and Democrats are more demoralized after the 2024 losses, he said.

“I think Democrats are very disappointed about the loss in 2024. They think the party made mistakes that demoralized them. The base doesn’t think they’re fighting hard enough against the Trump administration,” La Raja said. “In many ways, there’s not much they can do. They lack power in both chambers. They’re frustrated about that.”

Democrats likely need polling giving them a 7- or 8-point lead over Republicans in generic ballot polling to indicate a blue wave, he said. The economy will be a key factor in the midterms. If it falters, Democrats are more likely to pick up more seats. But if it hold steady, gains may be more limited, La Raja added.

Grant Davis Reeher, professor of political science at Syracuse University, told Newsweek that Trump being underwater on major policy issues like immigration and tariffs does not “bode well” for the GOP, but a “huge wave” may be less likely for Democrats.

“I would expect Republicans to lose the House, and have thought so since election day. Only George W. Bush was able to increase his party’s majority in the House, and that was not a typical mid-term, given 9-11,” he said. “The Republican margin is razor-thin, so any kind of set-back would likely knock them out of the majority. But I wouldn’t expect to see a huge wave, in part because we are even more polarized than before, and that tends to make movement from one party to the other more difficult.”

How Americans are experiencing the economy in the months leading up to the midterms will be decisive for Democrats’ returns, he said.

Midterms 2026: What Do Betting Odds Show?

Betting odds also give Democrats an advantage in the midterms for the House of Representatives. Polymarket shows them with a 71 percent chance of flipping the chamber. However, Republicans are favored in the Senate, where Democrats face a challenging map to win back control from the GOP’s 53-47 majority.

GOP-held seats in Maine, won by former Vice President Kamala Harris, and North Carolina, which Trump carried by only 3 points in 2024, present their best opportunities to flip a seat next year. But no other swing states are up for grabs, meaning they’ll need to flip seats Trump won by the lower double-digits, like Alaska, Iowa, Ohio or Texas, to win back control.

Will Redistricting Threaten Democratic Majority in 2027?

The impact of redistricting remains an open question.

Texas, with Trump’s support, kicked of the redistricting “arms race,” with Republicans proposing a map that could give them up to five new seats. States like Missouri, Indiana and Florida could also give Republicans more seats if they redraw.

On the other hand, Democratic states like California, Maryland and New York are eyeing their own redistricting in response to Texas. But Democrats in some of those states are likely to face legal challenges to redistrict due to independent commissions or other laws making it more difficult to undertake mid-decade redraws.

If this is a low-pickup year for Democrats, it is “plausible” this redistricting could outright cost them a majority,” according to La Raja.

Reeher said it’s hard to know how either party will win on this front ahead of the midterms.

“There will be tons of lawsuits, and a lot of these redrawn districts will be in limbo, perhaps right up until the election,” he said. “Hard to say who ‘wins’ on this, on a short-term basis. Long-term, we all lose if this becomes the new normal.”

What People Are Saying

Reeher also told Newsweek: “As to why the party of the president typically loses seats in a mid-term, it’s because we have a two-party system, and the out-party has two years to criticize what the in-party is doing, or trying to do, and the struggles of the president are front and center in the media for everyone to see. And people simply tire of each president, to some degree. There’s a natural tendency toward buyer’s remorse and a desire to check what is being done. Political human nature is at the root of it all.

“Presidents also tend to ask their party’s more marginal members to make some tough votes to get their agendas through in the first couple years, when their political capital is highest, and there’s often a reaction against those votes by the voters in those marginal districts. That’s what happened in the Tea Party’s response to Obamacare, for example, and something similar may happen with the OBBB [One Big Beautiful Bill Act] in this election cycle. Some Republicans made some hard votes in favor on that bill.”

Shelton also told Newsweek: “The midterms are shaping up to be a referendum on who is going to lower costs and improve the lives of everyday Americans, not the wealthiest few. By all accounts, the Republican trifecta is failing miserably and we’re seeing an escalating level of buyer’s remorse amongst the public. People hate the Big, Ugly Law, oppose price-spiking tariffs, and are showing their displeasure at rallies and town halls across the country. House Democrats will re-take the majority powered by an aggressive message focused on fighting for lowering prices and holding Republicans and Trump accountable for their record of broken promises.”

CNN Harry Enten wrote in a July 25 X post: “Trump’s drop w/ indies is his biggest danger sign. There seems to be no bottom. He owns the worst net approval w/ indies 6 months into a presidency (-29 pt), beating his own record. Wave adios to the GOP House majority if his net approval on inflation w/ indies (-45 pt!) holds.”