Despite growing extremism, Canada keeps terror threat level at medium

Canada is experiencing a “concerning increase” in extremism but does not need to raise its terrorism threat level, according to CSIS.

Despite a series of attacks and disrupted plots, the Canadian Security Intelligence Service said the threat level would remain at “medium.”

CSIS Director Daniel Rogers approved the decision last Thursday, a spokesperson for the intelligence agency said in a statement to Global News.

“While the threat environment has evolved over the last decade and increased in recent years, the threat of a realized attack has not risen significantly,” CSIS said.

CSIS released its statement in response to a Global News story about mounting terrorism arrests across Canada, many related to ISIS.

Just in the last six months, the RCMP has stopped two ISIS-related attacks, as well as bomb plots in Calgary and Ottawa in 2023.

Meanwhile, Jewish institutions have been targeted with gunshots and firebombs, and Canada has seen open support for groups such as Hamas.

The National Terrorism Threat Level is used to determine what responses are needed to prevent attacks.

It is based on the recommendation of the government’s Integrated Terrorism Assessment Centre (ITAC).

“There is no doubt that CSIS and ITAC are seeing a concerning increase in the volume of ideological, political and religious extremist rhetoric and activities,” CSIS said.

But it said the government had “effectively managed the threats,” and those planning violence were “successfully disrupted.”

Canadian authorities are also getting better at using terrorism charges and peace bonds to prevent attacks, CSIS spokesperson Lindsay Sloane said.

“All of these factors together lead to Canada’s national threat level remaining at medium, which is in line with the threat levels issued in the Five Eyes partner countries.”

Medium means an attack “could occur,” and “high” means one is likely while “critical” means highly likely.

Canada has not changed its threat level in more than a decade and has not released an annual public threat report since 2018.

“In the last five years, Canada has also not experienced realized terror attacks by a person under active investigation,” the CSIS spokesperson said.

But several attacks occurred during that period.

In 2021, ISIS supporters carried out a mass shooting at a Mississauga restaurant. A week later, an extremist rammed a Muslim family with a truck in London, Ont., killing four.

The following year, two brothers harbouring what authorities described as “anti-government beliefs” shot six police officers on Vancouver Island.

An attacker stabbed a bus passenger in Surrey, B.C., in 2023, and then allegedly phoned 911 to say he had done it for ISIS.

A gunman who had penned a manifesto about everything from water quality to Gaza stormed Edmonton City Hall in 2024.

In a Jan. 8 report, Insight Threat Intelligence, a firm headed by former CSIS analyst Jessica Davis, wrote that Canada had experienced a surge in terrorism arrests, and the threat had “rarely been higher.”

Sloane said the recent jump in terrorism charges was “not strictly an indicator of a rising threat in Canada.”

Far-right groups were only now being treated as terrorist organizations, meaning they were not accurately represented in past data, she said.

Former CSIS officer Andrew Kirsch said a medium threat level seemed reasonable. At that tier, terrorism “requires prioritization and ongoing vigilance,” he said.

But with the government’s focus on foreign interference and elections on the horizon, he asked, “Do they have the resources for all these high priority threats?”

Former CSIS analyst Phil Gurski said the threat level should be based on corroborated intelligence about the number of extremists and their ability to plan and execute attacks.

He questioned whether CSIS was downplaying the threat posed by groups like ISIS at the behest of a government concerned about political optics, noting France raised its threat posture to the highest level last year.

The United Kingdom’s threat level is substantial, meaning an attack is likely, while in Australia, it is probable and in New Zealand, it is low.

The U.S. uses a National Terrorism Advisory System that provides alerts for specific, credible threats. There are no current advisories.

An FBI alert last week warned about possible copycat attacks after an ISIS supporter rammed pedestrians with a truck in New Orleans on New Year’s Day, killing 14.

Stewart.Bell@globalnews.ca