The founder of the polling website Zenith Research, Adam Carlson, has said that he thinks the Democratic candidate for New York City’s mayoral race Zohran Mamdani could be set to win 1 million votes on Election Day.
In a post shared on the social media platform X on Saturday, Carlson suggested that, based on early voting turnout data, “Mamdani has a real shot of winning 1 million votes.”
Why It Matters
A New York City mayoral candidate hasn’t accumulated 1 million votes since 1969, when liberal candidate John Lindsay surpassed that figure against Democratic candidate Mario Procaccino and Republican candidate John Marchi.
Lindsay also won more than 1.1 million votes and Democratic candidate Abraham Beame won over 1 million votes, in a huge turnout of more than 2.5 million, in the 1965 mayoral election.
If Mamdani were to secure 1 million voters it would be a huge mandate for him and his vision for New York.
What To Know
Carlson said in his post on X that early turnout data indicates that there could be a turnout between 1.74 million to 2.05 million in the election, due to the pace with which constituents in New York are voting.
On the first day of early voting, 79,000 votes were recorded, and on the second day, 85,000. These high figures were largely sustained throughout the week, with the exception of day six where only 26,000 turned out to vote. On the eighth day of early voting as many 104,000 votes were recorded.
With the rate at which people are voting in this year’s mayoral election in New York City, Carlson said he thought by the end of the day on Sunday there could be 700,000 early votes cast in the election.
Although, others have suggested that the fact Sunday is the day of the New York City Marathon could mean voting turnout on November 3 is slightly less than previous days.
Carlson also said that there was “no notable change” in borough vote shares each day, but that “no change is good news for Mamdani—and it means that [independent candidate Andrew] Cuomo is increasingly reliant on an Election Day turnout miracle.”
With polls forecasting that Mamdani could get around 45 percent of the vote, according to an evaluation of the latest polls between October 14 and 30 by RealClear polling, this leaves him in a position to potentially break the 1-million-vote mark, according to Carlson’s predictions.
However, this is only Carlson’s own personal predictions, and not a definitive conclusion on what the early voting data shows.
That said, the early voting also shows that the boroughs that have been turning out in the highest numbers are those which Mamdani won in the primary.
At the end of day eight of early voting, the New York City Board of Elections posted on X that Manhattan had recorded 174,708 votes, Brooklyn 189,606 and Queens 131,541, meanwhile Bronx recorded 46,259 and Staten Island 41,991.
What People Are Saying
Zohran Mamdani wrote in a post on X on Saturday: “It is in our hands, my friends. Three more days.”
Andrew Cuomo wrote in a post on X on Saturday: “Incredible afternoon in Brooklyn—one more day of early voting—keep going, NYC!”
What Happens Next
Election Day is on November 4, and many have said on social media that anything could happen on the day, for reasons like young voters typically wait until Election Day to cast their ballots.
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