Food prices are expected to rise in 2026, with certain groceries particularly affected, according to estimates from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).
In its forecast for food costs in 2026, released on February 25, the USDA said food prices are generally expected to rise by 3.1 percent, with a prediction interval (a range of numbers expected to contain the value of a single future observation with a 95% confidence level) of 0.7 to 5.7 percent.
The department noted that costs of food away from home would rise by more than costs of food at home, with the costs increasing by 3.7 percent and 2.5 percent respectively.
Although, while many food groups are forecasted to go up in cost, egg prices are expected to continue going down.
Why It Matters
Many Americans have been struggling to cover high costs of living following years of inflation and other factors, meaning costs of groceries have been a key point of contention over the past year, and President Donald Trump vowed to make lowering the cost of food a major part of his administration’s efforts.
Groceries Expected To Have Highest Surge In Cost
According to the USDA’s report, the grocery items that will likely go up the most in 2026 are sugar and sweets. Prices for these groceries have been increasing by 1.0 percent from December 2025 to January 2026 and were 5.7 percent higher in January 2026 than in January 2025, with candy and chewing gum experiencing the largest price hikes.
The USDA predicted that prices for sugar and sweets will rise by 6.7 percent in 2026, with a prediction interval of 3.4 to 10.2 percent.
Other items likely to experience high increases in costs are beef and veal. The USDA said that beef and veal prices had decreased by 0.9 percent from December 2025 to January 2026 but were still 15.0 percent higher in January 2026 than in January 2025.
It noted that this was in the context of the U.S. cattle herd decreasing in size since 2019, while consumer demand has stayed strong, tightening supply.
As a result, the department predicted that beef and veal prices would increase by 5.5 percent in 2026, with a prediction interval of -2.7 to 14.4 percent.
Non-alcoholic beverages are forecasted to be the item that will see the third highest increase in cost, according to the USDA. The department said prices for non-alcoholic beverages had increased by 1.6 percent from December 2025 to January 2026 and were 4.5 percent higher in January 2026 than in January 2025.
The USDA said that prices for these drinks were rising faster than the 20-year historical rate partly because of the surge in coffee prices.
It predicted that for 2026, costs of non-alcoholic beverages would rise by 5.2 percent, with a prediction interval of 1.6 to 9.2 percent.
Other Food Items
Other food items are expected to see smaller increases in cost, such as pork. The USDA expected that pork prices would increase by 1.9 percent in 2026, with a prediction interval of -3.8 to 7.9 percent. Pork prices rose 1.3 percent from December 2025 to January 2026 and were 1.4 percent higher in January 2026 than in January 2025.
Fresh vegetables are also expected to go up slightly in cost. The USDA said that retail fresh vegetable prices increased by 0.2 percent from December 2025 to January 2026 and were 0.8 percent higher in January 2026 than in January 2025.
It predicted that the cost of fresh vegetables would increase by 1.4 percent in 2026, with a prediction interval of -4.2 to 7.4 percent.
Fresh fruit may also experience a similar change in cost. Retail fresh fruit prices increased by 0.7 percent from December 2025 to January 2026 but were 0.5 percent lower in January 2026 than in January 2025.
The USDA estimated that prices for fresh fruits would increase 0.2 percent in 2026, with a prediction interval of -4.0 to 4.7 percent.
Poultry prices decreased by 0.1 percent from December 2025 to January 2026 but were still 1.6 percent higher in January 2026 than in January 2025, meaning the USDA forecasted that poultry prices would go up by 0.1 percent in 2026, with a prediction interval of -4.4 to 4.7 percent.
What About Egg Prices?
The food item the USDA anticipated would go down in cost is eggs. Retail egg prices decreased notably by 5.3 percent between December 2025 to January 2026 and were 34.2 percent lower in January 2026 than in January 2025.
This is largely because of the spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), which caused retail egg prices to spike in late 2024 and early 2025. The USDA noted that HPAI “contributes to elevated egg prices by reducing egg-layer flocks and egg production.”
After confirmed cases of HPAI tapered in April 2025, and U.S. egg production has since increased, the USDA said it expected costs to continue to recover in 2026, with costs decreasing by around 27.4 percent in 2026.
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