From Germany to Romania: the elections that will define Europe in 2025

If 2024 was a year marked by elections around the world – featuring Donald Trump’s return to power in the US, the consolidation of right-wing parties in the EU elections, a political shift in the UK from the Conservatives to Labour, and the re-election of Narendra Modi in India – 2025 promises to bring its own set of surprises in Europe.

Here’s a round-up of the key elections taking place in 2025 and what we can expect:

Germany: back in the European political game ?

After the Bundestag’s vote of no-confidence on Chancellor Olaf Scholz on 16 December 2024, snap elections are due to take place on 23 February 2025.

The electoral campaign has been marked by the attack on Magdeburg’s Christmas market on 20 December by a doctor, who is also refugee from Saudi Arabia. Though attacker held Islamophobic views, according to Interior Minister Nancy Faeser, and expressed support for the Alternative für Deutschland (AFD) party, the incident has nonetheless crystallised anti-immigration sentiment in a region of eastern Germany already won over by the AFD.

The AfD is currently polling at 20%, second behind the CDU/CSU (32%), which has capitalised on the rejection of the SPD-Grunen-FDP coalition. The CDU is headed by Friedrich Merz, a potential future chancellor, who is proposing a policy that is more economically liberal than under Merkel and more conservative socially, for example on the issue of migration.

Merz, who rose during the Helmut Khol era, is committed to a more integrated Europe. He wants to relaunch relations with France and Poland, criticises Europe’s heavy dependence on the United States and calls for Taurus Cruise missiles to be sent to Ukraine.

Romania: a tense presidential race after foreign meddling and the rise of anti-EU populism

Romania will hold new presidential elections in 2025 after the Constitutional Court annulled the first round of voting. The court’s decision came following concerns over foreign interference in an election where the centrist, pro-EU candidate Elena Lasconi and far-right, pro-Russian candidate Călin Georgescu advanced to the second round. 

The ruling followed evidence of Russian interference in the election, particularly the artificial boost Georgescu received on social media platforms, notably TikTok. Until then, Georgescu was relatively unknown to the public, but his online support alarmed authorities. 

Meanwhile, the legislative elections, which were not annulled, saw a victory for the Social Democrats. 

A new presidential vote is expected to take place in the first half of 2025. Official proceedings launched by the European Commission against TikTok under the Digital Services Act will provide deeper insight into how the platform’s algorithms function during elections. 

Poland: a test of Tusk’s government approval amid strong right-wing opposition

The upcoming presidential elections in May in Poland are shaping up to feel like a referendum on the government led by Donald Tusk, in power since December 2023, which unites parties from the left to the centre-right. While it is Prime Minister Tusk (Civic Platform) who holds significant sway over day-to-day governance, the President still plays a crucial role. Current President Andrzej Duda from the Law and Justice (PiS) opposition party, who has held the position for eight years prior to Tusk’s return, has used his veto power to block many of the government’s policies. 

The presidential race is now a showdown between candidates from the two main parties: Rafał Trzaskowski, the Mayor of Warsaw for Civic Platform (PO), and Karol Nawrocki, a historian, who will represent PiS. Although the race is tight, opinion polls suggest that the Civic Platform is likely to emerge victorious. 

Italy: local elections challenge the stability of a government on shaky ground

An important electoral test awaits Giorgia Meloni next September, as elections will be held in six regions: Puglia, Campania, Le Marche, Tuscany, Valle d’Aosta, and Veneto. These elections will offer a snapshot of Italian public opinion on the relatively stable Meloni government, at least by Italian standards. Last November, coalition parties were outflanked by the centre-left coalition in the regional elections in Emilia-Romagna and Umbria – a setback for Meloni. 

The Veneto region will come under particular scrutiny, given its large population and long history of being governed by the populist League, a key player in the ruling coalition. 

In Puglia, MEP Antonio Decaro, chair of the Environment committee and of the Democratic Party could run as governor.

Czech Republic: the risk of a strong Europhobic axis in Central Europe

In Czechia, parliamentary elections will take place in October 2025.

The latest polls give ANO (which sits with The Patriots in the European Parliament), led by populist Andrej Babiš, 34.5% of the vote, well ahead The Civic Democratic Party (ODS) – with ECR in the EP-, led by conservative Prime Minister Petr Fiala, expected to win 13.7%, followed by the center-right STAN party (EPP) – 11%.

Babis’ victory would strengthen a far-right axis in Central Europe, which includes Hungary’s Victor Orban and Slovakia’s Robert Fico. The billionaire former prime minister has been dubbed the “Czech Trump”. Anti-elite and anti-migrant, he is also opposed to more European Union integration and shows complacency towards Russia. Many fear attacks against democracy in Czechia if he returns to power. 

Croatia: the reelection of a ‘nationalist’

Croatians will elect their President of the Republic in a second round run-off on 12 January. Zoran Milanovic, the current head of state, is standing for re-election. Heis running as an independent but is supported by a coalition led by the Social Democratic Party (SDP).

Zoran Milanovic took everyone by surprise during the parliamentary elections last April when he decided to run as head of the SDP list in Zagreb. His candidacy was rejected by the Constitutional Court.

The president calls himself a “nationalist.” He is opposed to the government’s support for Ukraine and the participation of Croatian soldiers in the NATO-led mission to train Ukrainian soldiers. He leads with 37,4% in the polls, ahead of Andrej Plenkovic (20,8%), the candidate supported by the prime minister’s party, the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) – which sits with the European People Party (EPP) at the European Parliament – and advocates strengthening Croatia’s ties with its Western allies.

United Kingdom: will Labour’s victory last year translate into lasting support?

On 1 May, the UK will hold its first elections since last July’s general election, which saw the Labour Party return to power and Keir Starmer become Prime Minister. 

This vote for England’s county councils will serve as a key test for Labour, revealing whether their victory last year will be the beginning of lasting support for the party.

According to Sky News, polls suggest that Labour and the Conservatives are currently neck and neck in the mid-20% range – a historically low level of backing for both parties – with Reform UK, Nigel Farage’s populist party, trailing by just five points. Reform UK currently holds no seats in local councils. 

Belarus: an election with a silenced opposition

The 2020 Belarusian presidential election was marred by widespread electoral fraud, violent repression of the opposition and brutal crackdowns on protesters challenging the results. The election, which saw dictator Alexander Lukashenko claim a disputed victory with 80% of the vote, was widely condemned, with the European Union and other countries refusing to recognise the outcome. Alexander Lukashenko has been in power since 1994. 

Since then, Belarusian human rights group Viasna has reported that over 50,000 people have been arrested on political grounds. 

With the next election scheduled for 26 January, little is expected to change. Lukashenko has already warned that he may cut off internet access entirely during the 2025 presidential race if protests akin to those of 2020 erupt, according to state-run news outlet Belta in November. 

Russia: a foregone conclusion

In the upcoming Russian elections next September, voters will casting their ballot for the Duma by-elections to fill vacant seats in the lower house of parliament, as well as for governors in 18 regions, regional parliaments in 11 regions, and local government representatives across various areas.

However, there are growing concerns regarding the fairness of these elections. Media freedom remains severely restricted, and political opponents continue to face harsh repression, personified by the death of opposition leader Alexei Navalny. These issues cast a long shadow over the integrity of the electoral process. 

Norway: will the EU’s rightward shift reach Norway?

On 8 September, Norway will hold parliamentary elections that will decide the makeup of the 169-seat Storting and indicate who might become the next prime minister. Jonas Gahr Støre, leader of the centre-left Labour Party, currently holds the position. 

As seen across Europe, the latest polls suggest a shift towards right-wing parties. The far-right Progress Party is expected to come out on top – its 10% share of the vote in 2021 is predicted to double by 2025. Hot on their heels is the centre-right Conservative Party, led by former Prime Minister Erna Solberg. 

Ireland: turning the page after Higgins

No official date has been set yet, but the Irish will head to the polls by November 2025 to elect a new president, ending the popular Michael D. Higgins’ 14 years in office. Although largely ceremonial, the role of the President holds significant constitutional responsibilities, such as signing bills into law and representing Ireland on the global stage. 

While no candidates have formally entered the presidential race, Irish media outlet The Journal is speculating on potential contenders. Among the names mentioned are familiar faces from Brussels: former European Commissioner Mairead McGuinness and former MEP Frances Fitzgerald – both from the centre-right party Fine Gael. 

The upper house of the Irish Parliament, the Seanad, will also be renewed, though through an indirect process. Forty-nine senators will be elected by university graduates, while 11 will be appointed by the Prime Minister and vocational panels. Final results are expected from 30 January. These elections follow the dissolution of the lower house, the Dáil, on 8 November. 

Georgia: will the local elections confirm the country’s pro-Russian orientation as pro-Europe protests continue?

In October 2025, Georgia will hold elections, one year after the disputed parliamentary elections won by the Georgian Dream party which as been widely accused of being pro-Russian. The country is the site of a struggle for influence between Russia and the West,  while Russian troops have occupied 20% of Georgian territory since 2008.

The new government’s decision on 28 November to postpone the country’s EU accession process until 2028 provoked a wave of demonstrations in Tbilisi and other cities across the country. Georgia gained EU candidate status in December 2023, but the process was halted by the EU, citing the country’s democratically unstable conditions.

29 December marked the end of pro-European President Salome Zurabishvili’s term in office, who was replaced by the pro-Russian former footballer Mikheil Kavelashvili. He was elected on 14 December by the parliament in which Georgian Dream has a majority, in a vote that was boycotted by the opposition. As the stranglehold on pro-European forces intensifies, demonstrators have faced a heavy-handed response by the authorities. Meanwhile, Salome Zurabishvili refuses to recognise the new president and stand down from her position. 

Moldova: pro-Russian ambush as parliamentary elections scheduled for 2025

As a buffer state to Ukraine, Moldavia is facing attempts at Russian interference with a disinformation campaign. The referendum on accession to the European Union in autumn 2024 went down to the wire in favour of the “Yes” camp (50.35%). Meanwhile, the pro-European president Maia Sandu was re-elected in a second round of voting.

For the 2025 legislative elections, the President’s party (The Party of Action and Solidarity – PAS) is playing for keeps. If it fails to win a majority, it will have to contend with other political forces, not all of which supported the “Yes” vote in the referendum. For Maia Sandu, these elections will be “a final battle” in Moldova’s road to EU membership, in a country where pro-Russian political opposition remains strong.

Albania: the same two political parties fighting for power

In Albania, President Bajram Begaj has set parliamentary elections for 11 May 2025 after a consultation was boycotted by the main opposition Democratic Party (DP), which accused the president of endorsing a pre-determined date by the Socialist Party.

Prime Minister Edi Rama’s Socialist Party and the DP are playing for big stakes in this election: the DP will be attempting to put an end to the Socialist Party’s three successive terms in office. The country has been in the throes of a serious political crisis for several years, the political debate being highly polarised between the DP and the socialists, heir to the communist regime and Enver Hoxha’s Party of Labour. 

The opposition has accused the government of sending opposition figures to prison for political reasons. This lack of political plurality coupled with domestic resistance to fighting corruption makes EU accession talks challenging, with the negotiations for EU membership having officially started in 2022.

In May 2025, for the first time, Albanians living abroad will have the opportunity to vote. 

Kosovo: will the pro-independence party keep its majority ?

In Kosovo, the Self-Determination Movement (Vetëvendosje), Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s party, is well set to win again in the parliamentary elections in February 2025. Since his landslide supermajority victory in 2021, the opposition has lacked leaders capable of challenging Kurti.

After the February’s poll, the question will be whether his party will be able to secure a majority or whether it will have to include opposition parties or representatives of the Serbian community in the government.

Srpska Lista, the Serbian ethnic party, has close ties with Serbia which does not recognise Kosovo’s independence which was declared in 2008 and is backed by key Western powers. After being refused the right to run for Parliamentary seats by the electoral commission, Srpska Lista was finally on 25 December granted the right to compete by an appeals body.