Republicans are facing tightening polls against Democrats in key races in the battle for Senate control in the 2026 midterm elections.
Newsweek reached out to the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) and Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) for comment via email.
Why It Matters
Democrats are increasingly hopeful about their chances of winning control of the Senate, despite the difficult map they’re facing in November. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, so Democrats must pick up four seats for a real majority, or three for a tie. Vote ties are broken by the vice president. Republicans have generally been viewed as favorites to hold control of the chamber even in the case of a blue wave fueled by President Donald Trump’s declining approval rating.
That’s because Democrats have few clear targets. GOP-held seats in North Carolina, which backed Trump by about 3 percentage points, and Maine, which he lost by 7 points in 2024, are viewed as the party’s seats most in peril. But no other GOP-held seats are up for reelection in states he lost or won by a single-digit margin, so Democrats need to compete in more conservative territory to have a shot to win the majority.
What Polls Show for Democrats’ Top 5 Targets
Early polling points to close races in several of those states, fueling Democrats’ optimism about their chances in the Senate, even as many of the seats they hope to flip backed Trump by double digits.
The Cook Political Report classifies 10 races as being potentially competitive. It classifies the race in Minnesota as Likely Democratic and New Hampshire as Lean Democratic. Iowa and Texas are seen as Likely Republican, while Alaska and Ohio are seen as Lean Republican. GOP-held seats in Maine and North Carolina and Democratic-held seats in Georgia and Michigan are toss-ups.
Prediction markets reveal trader sentiments about where things stand in these key races. Over the weekend, Kalshi’s markets shifted to giving Democrats a slight advantage to win control of the Senate. On Monday, both parties had roughly even chances of winning a Senate majority.
Alaska
Alaska is not typically viewed as competitive, having backed Trump by 13 points in 2024. But Democrats believe their presumptive nominee, former Representative Mary Peltola, who held the state’s at-large congressional district from 2022 to 2025, may be a strong candidate capable of toppling Republican Senator Dan Sullivan.
The latest Alaska Survey Research poll gave her an advantage. Forty-eight percent of respondents backed Peltola, compared to 46.4 percent who backed Sullivan, while an additional 5.6 percent were undecided. It surveyed 1,681 likely voters January 8-11.
An earlier Data for Progress survey gave Peltola a one-point lead over Sullivan (46 percent to 45 percent) among the 823 likely voters surveyed October 17-23, 2025.
Kalshi gives Pelota a 52 percent chance of winning and Polymarket has her in the lead at 51 percent.
Maine
Senator Susan Collins is viewed as potentially vulnerable in Maine but is still a formidable opponent, having won reelection in tough environments in the past. Democrats are hopeful Trump’s declining approval rating, as well as increased political polarization, will complicate Collins’ path to reelection. But Democrats are facing a messy primary between Governor Janet Mills and progressive Graham Platner.
The latest poll from Quantus Insights gave Collins a slight lead over Mills (44.6 percent to 43 percent) but Platner a lead over Collins (49 percent to 42 percent). It surveyed 800 likely voters March 3-5 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
A Pan Atlantic Research poll earlier in March showed Collins and Mills locked in a dead heat at 44 percent each. It gave Platner a modest advantage (44 percent to 40 percent). It surveyed 810 likely voters from February 13 to March 2 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
In Maine, Kalshi gave Democrats a 70 percent chance of winning. Polymarket gives Democrats a slightly higher chance of winning, at 75 percent.
North Carolina
North Carolina is viewed as the other top target for Democrats. Incumbent Republican Thom Tillis opted against running for reelection. Former Governor Roy Cooper won the Democratic nomination, while ex-Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley secured the GOP nomination in the primary earlier in March.
A recent Change Research poll gave the former governor a 10-point lead (50 percent to 40 percent), with 7 percent saying they’re unsure who they would support and 4 percent saying they would not vote. It surveyed 1,069 North Carolina voters from January 31 to February 4.
A TIPP Insights poll gave Cooper a 24-point lead (48 percent to 24 percent), with 27 percent of respondents undecided. It surveyed 1,512 registered voters January 12-15 and had a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.
In North Carolina, Kalshi gave Democrats a 81 percent chance of winning. Polymarket gives Democrats a slightly higher chance of winning, at 84 percent.
Ohio
In Ohio, which backed Trump by about 11 points, former Senator Sherrod Brown, who lost his seat in 2024, is seeking a comeback against GOP Senator Jon Husted, who was appointed to the seat to finish the term of Vice President JD Vance.
Polls are pointing to a close race.
A Quantus Insights poll gave Husted only a single-point lead over Brown (45.5 percent to 44.4 percent). It surveyed 784 likely voters March 13-14.
A poll conducted by the Republican-aligned On Message Public Strategies from March 3-8 among likely voters found Brown at 47 percent and Husted at 45 percent, with 8 percent undecided.
In Ohio, Kalshi gave Democrats a 51 percent chance of winning. Polymarket gives Democrats a slightly higher chance of winning, at 53 percent.
Texas
Democrats are also eyeing the Senate race in Texas, long viewed as reliably Republican, as a possible flip. State Representative James Talarico has secured Democrats’ nomination, while incumbent GOP Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton are headed for a May runoff.
Some conservatives say Cornyn has not been sufficiently supportive of Trump and have criticized his votes on some issues like gun policy. But his supporters say Paxton, who has faced years of legal and personal scandals, would carry baggage into the general election that could help Democrats.
Most recent polls point to a close race in Texas, which has been elusive to Democrats in recent years. Lloyd Bentsen, in 1988, was the last Democrat elected to the U.S. Senate from Texas.
A survey from Democratic-aligned pollster Public Policy Polling gave Talarico a two-point lead over Paxton (47 percent to 45 percent) and a single-point lead over Cornyn (44 percent to 43 percent). It surveyed 576 voters March 4-5 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
But a University of Houston poll earlier this year gave Republicans an advantage. It gave Paxton a two-point lead over Talarico (46 percent to 44 percent) and Cornyn a single-point lead (44 percent to 43 percent). It surveyed 1,502 likely voters January 20-31.
In Texas, Kalshi gave Republicans a 58 percent chance of winning. Polymarket gives Republicans a slightly lower chance of winning, at 56 percent.
What Polls Show in Republicans’ Top Targets
Republicans view Democratic-held seats in Georgia and Michigan as their top flip opportunities. Both swing states narrowly backed Trump after voting for Joe Biden in 2020. Democrats are hopeful a favorable national environment will prevent them from becoming too tight, but Republicans see them as competitive.
A recent Emerson College poll gave Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff an advantage over Republicans. He led Representative Buddy Carter by three points (47 percent to 44 percent), Representative Mike Collins by nearly five points (48 percent to 43 percent) and former Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley by eight points (49 percent to 41 percent).
It surveyed 1,000 likely voters from February 28-March 2 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Michigan is viewed as potentially competitive, as Democratic Senator Gary Peters is retiring.
Former Representative Mike Rogers is viewed as the likely Republican nominee. On the Democratic side, Representative Haley Stevens, state Senator Mallory McMorrow and progressive Abdul El-Sayed are vying for the party’s nomination.
The latest Emerson College poll gave Stevens a nearly five-point lead over Rogers (47 percent to 42 percent) and McMorrow a three-point lead (46 percent to 43 percent). Rogers, however, held a slight lead over El-Sayed (42.8 percent to 42.5 percent). It surveyed 1,000 likely voters January 24-25 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
What People Are Saying
Kalshi, in a press release over the weekend: “For now, the message from prediction markets is clear. The race for the Senate has tightened dramatically, with Democrats now holding a narrow 51% to 49% edge in the control market. At the same time, traders currently see Democrats as strong favorites to win the House, and the balance of power market suggests the most likely overall outcome is Democratic control of both chambers.”
Kyle Kondik, an analyst for Sabato’s Crystal Ball, in a January 29 update: “The basic asset for Republicans, and problem for Democrats, is the structure of the Senate map. With Republicans having knocked out all of the remaining Democrats from states that voted for Donald Trump all three times he was on the ballot—a group of 25 states that accounts for half of all the Senate seats—Democrats either have to start winning in redder states again or, over time, essentially sweep all of the Senate seats in blue and purple states.”
What Happens Next
Primary season kicked off this month and will continue on Tuesday, when Illinois voters will head to the polls and decide on critical races, including the Senate race for both parties as Democratic Senator Dick Durbin is retiring. The race is not viewed as competitive.
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