Statistician and political analyst Nate Silver has described a recent uptick in Donald Trump’s approval rating as “pretty unusual,” noting that the president’s numbers have improved slightly despite the ongoing government shutdown — a period when public frustration typically drives down approval ratings.
Silver’s tracker currently puts Trump’s net approval rating at -8 points, with 44 percent approving and 52 percent disapproving. That is up from October 2, the day after the shutdown began, when Trump had a net approval rating of -10 points, with 43 percent approving and 53 percent disapproving.
In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Silver wrote that “Trump’s approval rating has actually improved a tick during the shutdown, which is pretty unusual as these things go.”
Why It Matters
Presidents almost always see their approval ratings fall during government shutdowns, as voters grow frustrated with political gridlock.
Trump’s slight improvement suggests the public may not be placing the bulk of the blame on him this time — or that partisan divisions have hardened so much that traditional political fallout no longer applies
Shutdown Enters Third Week Amid Deepening Economic Strain
It comes as the government shutdown enters its third week. The federal government shuttered at the beginning of the month after Congress failed to break a funding deadlock and pass a measure to keep agencies running. The government funding dispute largely centers on whether to include an extension of Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies in the spending bill.
Democrats say health care protections must be preserved, while Republicans say funding and policy should be handled separately.
As the shutdown continued, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned on Monday that it was “starting to affect” the U.S. economy. “This is getting serious. It’s starting to affect the real economy. It’s starting to affect people’s lives,” he told Fox News.
Analysts estimate it could shave roughly 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points off economic growth for each week that it continues. Meanwhile, the Treasury said the shutdown could cost U.S. economy $15 billion a week.
The shutdown has also left federal workers unpaid, with around 4,000 federal workers laid off, and key services suspended, with no end in sight as both parties hold firm.
Trump’s Approval Rating Defies Historical Trends
According to analysis by FiveThirtyEight, previous shutdowns typically trigger a noticeable drop in public support. For instance, during the 1995-1996 shutdown, President Bill Clinton’s Gallup rating dropped from around 51 percent to the low 40s as the standoff dragged on, before rebounding after the impasse ended.
Similarly, during the 2013 shutdown, public sentiment blinked against both Congress and the president, with Republicans in Congress absorbing a heavier share of the blame.
However, recent polls suggest that Trump’s approval rating is holding firm.
Newsweek’s tracker shows Trump’s net approval rating has crept up from -11 points before the shutdown began to -8 points, with 44 percent approving and 52 percent disapproving.
Rasmussen Reports also showed improvement, with Trump’s net rating rising from -10 on October 8 to -5 on October 14.
YouGov/Economist polling has also shown a small improvement in Trump’s popularity, with his net approval rising from -17 points last week to -15 points this week.
Blame For Shutdown Shifts
And while Americans are more likely to blame Republicans than Democrats for the ongoing government shutdown, the YouGov/Economist poll showed that gap is beginning to narrow.
Just six points now separate the parties in public blame for the shutdown, according to the latest poll. It finds that 39 percent of Americans hold President Trump and congressional Republicans responsible, while 33 percent blame Democrats in Congress.
A week ago, the gap was wider — 41 percent blamed Trump and the GOP, compared with 30 percent who blamed Democrats. The share of respondents who say both sides are equally at fault has also slipped, from 23 percent last week to 20 percent now.
In a post on X, Silver argued that Democrats’ messaging around the shutdown has been inconsistent, saying their strategy “is self-contradictory” and that “they’re not really owning any of it because they don’t want to be blamed for a shutdown.”
Silver suggested that Democrats’ lack of a clear narrative has left voters confused about the party’s goals, writing that “the intellectually consistent message would be to say, ‘you’re damned right we’re doing this because it’s important.’”
Democrats and Republicans have sought to blame the opposing side for the shutdown since the problem began.
“Democrats have officially voted to CLOSE the government,” Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson wrote on X. He added: “Democrats could have worked with us. Instead they prioritized taxpayer-funded benefits for illegal aliens.”
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said: “Democrats put us in this position.”
Meanwhile, former Vice President Kamala Harris wrote on X: “President Trump and Congressional Republicans just shut down the government because they refused to stop your health care costs from rising. Let me be clear: Republicans are in charge of the White House, House, and Senate. This is their shutdown.”
Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin said the shutdown amounted to “the clearest sign yet that Republicans are inept, incompetent, and lack any respect for the American people.”
No End In Sight
On Capitol Hill, there appears to be little hope the shutdown will end anytime soon.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has accused Republicans of “refusing to negotiate,” saying their proposal amounted to a unilateral funding plan that excluded Democratic priorities.
House Speaker Johnson has countered that Democrats are holding government funding “hostage” over policy riders unrelated to the budget. Johnson has publicly stated that he has “nothing to negotiate,” a stance that has reinforced perceptions of gridlock in Washington.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said: “House Republicans shut the government down, then they ran out of town,” adding that his party stood “ready, willing and able to negotiate a bipartisan spending agreement”.
On Wednesday, lawmakers failed for a ninth time to advance legislation that would restore funding.
Looking ahead, Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Republicans want to package several spending bills together with a defense department vote set for Thursday, but they will need Democrats to agree.
“Shutdowns are not good for anybody, and the sooner we end it, the better,” Thune said.
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