Coalition roads spokesperson Natalie Ward said it was concerning that the government was warned about the quality of the traffic modelling work, yet was still proceeding with negotiations.
“After two years, the government should clear up why bureaucrats were looking at a nine-fold increase in tolls for some drivers or, in fact, provide any detail about what is on or off the table for toll reform,” she said.
The government has been negotiating with toll road giant Transurban and other large investors about a shake-up of tolling contracts since last July.
Trucks are charged the same as cars for southbound journeys on both the Sydney Harbour Tunnel and the Bridge.Credit: Louie Douvis
Roads Minister John Graham said the Fels review developed an extensive range of scenarios and options, and none should be viewed in isolation to predict any future changes to tolling under a reformed network-wide system.
“Under the Liberal party, Sydney became the model city for ‘toll mania’. The Minns Labor government is working to provide a fairer toll network,” he said.
Graham said Transport for NSW had the “most extensive sets of data and traffic modelling at its disposal”, and that used as part of ongoing direct deal negotiations was being “constantly refined”.
The peer review by ShapeTransport warned in June that the modelling in “its current state” should not be used for investment decisions on individual toll road assets.
“It might be prudent to further upgrade the demand modelling approach to an investment-grade level prior to negotiating alternative toll arrangements with the incumbent private sector toll road operators,” it said.
The term “investment-grade forecasts” is used in the context of them standing up to scrutiny when considering a multibillion-dollar investment.
With tolls costing Sydney motorists around $2.5 billion each year, the peer review recommended further work was needed to achieve investment-grade forecasts. The traffic modelling used by Transport for NSW to forecast toll road demand was developed for WestConnex.
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The consultants who were hired by Treasury to peer-review the demand modelling used for the Fels review found that it was “probably adequate for testing alternative toll policies”.
However, ShapeTransport consultants said further development was needed if the modelling was to be used to negotiate alternative tolls with incumbent motorway operators. Their report cited “serious questions over the ability” of the toll review model to “forecast with great certainty the demand response to large toll increases”.
Transport for NSW said any price changes would be confirmed through the outcome of the toll reform program.
“The nine-fold increase referred to in the independent toll review was for heavy vehicles crossing the Sydney Harbour Bridge and Tunnel. The government was clear the independent toll review was not government policy,” it said.
The agency said traffic modelling was “being prepared iteratively and upgraded” to address the issues raised in the peer review as part of the process for the toll reform program. “These upgrades will ensure the modelling is fit for purpose as decision points are reached in the process,” it said.
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