The Conor McDavid effect is real and ever-lasting.
The Athletic’s latest model projections have the Edmonton Oilers as the No. 1 candidate to win the Stanley Cup at a 24% clip and to finish with 111 total points.
Edmonton is tied with the Vegas Golden Knights for the Pacific Division lead with 61 points. It is only behind the Washington Capitals and Winnipeg Jets, who have 65 and 67 points, respectively.
At the same time, the Oilers are consensus betting favorites to hoist Lord Stanley in June.
This is a critical year for the Oilers; after getting to the Finals last season and losing in seven to the Florida Panthers, there is immense pressure to climb back and win it all. Furthermore, Connor McDavid’s contract is up after next season, and going Cup-less in the first 10 years of a career while being the undisputed best player in the world points to organizational dysfunction.
Hockey is not a game where success is earned on the backs of one or two superstars. Even so, Edmonton has deployed plenty of comprehensively structured teams to where a Cup is long overdue, having made the playoffs for the last consecutive five years.
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Perhaps some of these narratives play a role in why Edmonton is emerging as a favorable prediction, but how good are the Oilers as it stands?
With McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and a full supporting cast of offensive talent, output has never been the question. The Oilers were involved in high-scoring affairs for the past couple of years because they had the top-heaviness to score, but allowed too many chances that wound up in twine.
Edmonton ranks No. 1 overall in shots per game at 31.9 and while its power play has taken a slight step backward this year, it remains a top-10 operation that converts at a 24.6% rate.
Here’s the flip side to that: The Oilers struggle killing penalties, ranking No. 25 overall and allowing the fifth-most shots on goal per game.
There’s also of course the fact that the Oilers haven’t been getting as many calls as they did last year. If they can’t get on the power play consistently, these flaws will be exposed in a seven-game playoff series.
As a 5-on-5 force, the Oilers remain a top-three club in both shot attempt differential (measuring total puck possession) and expected goals rate per Moneypuck.com.
Then there is the largest concern of all, which has bitten the Oilers when push comes to shove every year they’ve been within arm’s reach of a Cup: Goaltending.
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Stuart Skinner eventually straightened out his game in the playoffs last year, but it took some hiccups to get to 2.45 goals against average and a .901 save percentage in 23 games.
This season, Skinner is up to 2.70 in 31 starts while his counterpart Calvin Pickard holds a save percentage below .900.
There are still moves to be made ahead of the deadline, however, it’s clear that the Oilers are inflated in public perception in contrast to a team like the Winnipeg Jets, who have the No. 1 power play and goal output along with a Vezina favorite in goal; not to mentioned they massacred Edmonton 6-0 in October.
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