Republicans said Tuesday’s Democratic victories were expected. But the results revealed deeper problems for the GOP: weak turnout, slipping Latino support and growing concern that without President Donald Trump on the ballot, the party has no clear path forward heading into 2026.
“TRUMP WASN’T ON THE BALLOT, AND SHUTDOWN, WERE THE TWO REASONS THAT REPUBLICANS LOST ELECTIONS TONIGHT,” Trump posted on Truth Social after Democrats swept in major contests.
Democrats flipped governorships in Virginia and New Jersey, swept judicial races in Pennsylvania and won the New York City mayor’s office. While GOP officials framed the results as typical for an off-year cycle, the margins and turnout gaps sparked internal finger-pointing.
“It’s not doomsday, but not a good tea leaf,” one White House ally told Politico. “There are people who only turn out when [Trump] is on the ballot.”
Turnout Weakness, Latino Shift Alarm GOP
Democrats were expected to win most major races, but several candidates exceeded expectations. Former U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger won Virginia’s governorship, defeating Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, with a focus on affordability and public safety. In New Jersey, U.S. Representative Mikie Sherrill beat Trump-backed Jack Ciattarelli. In Virginia, Democrat Jay Jones won the attorney general’s race despite a scandal over leaked text messages in which he talked about killing a Republican lawmaker and his family.
And in New York City, 34-year-old democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani defeated former Governor Andrew Cuomo and Curtis Sliwa.
“We got our asses handed to us,” Ohio GOP gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy said in a video posted to X.
Some Republicans blamed candidate quality. “A bad candidate and bad campaign have consequences — the Virginia governor’s race is example number one,” Trump adviser Chris LaCivita said.
Others blamed poor strategy. “Trump should absolutely have been out in New Jersey,” said Andrew Kolvet of Turning Point USA. “The people that love Trump … would have been motivated by that.”
The party also saw steep drop-offs in key Latino areas. In Passaic County, New Jersey, where 42 percent of the population is Hispanic, Democrats flipped a 3-point GOP lead from 2024 into a 15-point win. In Manassas Park, Virginia, where Latinos make up 46 percent of the population, Spanberger won by 42 points, doubling the Democratic margin from 2024.
“This is the clearest sign I’ve seen of Latinos abandoning the GOP after Trump’s big gains in 2024,” Republican strategist Mike Madrid told Newsweek. “Huge night for Dems but their coalition is anti-Trump, not pro-Democratic. That’s the key metric.”
Economic Message Falters
Trump did not appear in person at any campaign events. His administration’s shutdown and budget cuts were central themes in Democratic messaging across several states. Democrats like Spanberger and Sherrill emphasized economic moderation and avoided national ideological fights.
Doug Gordon, a Democratic strategist, told Newsweek Republicans are paying the price for failing to deliver. “Trump and Republicans ran on lowering prices and fixing an economy that isn’t working. Instead, we have secret police disappearing people off the streets, retribution politics, and no economic improvement.”
Republicans leaned on hard-edged messaging around immigration and crime, but failed to match Democratic outreach in suburban and Latino-heavy areas.
“We ran into a wall,” said a GOP aide involved in the New Jersey race. “There was no Trump on the ballot, and that meant our coalition didn’t show up.”
In Pennsylvania, Democrats held all three state Supreme Court seats. In California, voters approved a congressional redistricting measure that favors Democrats heading into 2026.
Can the GOP Win Without Trump?
Some Republican strategists began running ads tying swing-district Democrats to Mamdani’s far-left platform, but others acknowledged the losses were more about turnout and trust than ideology.
“Running squishy Rs who are lukewarm on Trump and MAGA… doesn’t work,” wrote Trump-aligned PAC head Alex Bruesewitz on X.
Yet many Republicans see the bigger problem. The GOP continues to struggle in transferring Trump’s personal coalition to other candidates.
Polling from CNN released just before the election showed that 63 percent of Americans disapprove of Trump’s performance as president. Sixty-one percent said his policies have worsened the economy—a core issue cited by voters in every state with a competitive race.
“People aren’t feeling the promises kept,” the White House ally told Politico. “You won on lowering costs … and people don’t feel that right now.”
Read the full article here
