The terrorist threat in Canada “has rarely been higher,” according to a report released on Wednesday in the aftermath of the New Year’s Day attack in New Orleans.
“The bottom line: Terrorism in Canada is on the rise,” said the study, which found a “statistically significant” surge in terrorism charges between 2007 and 2024.
The number of charges is “an important indicator” of the threat, since terrorism arrests often stem from foiled attack plots, the Ottawa firm Insight Threat Intelligence wrote.
“Across the board, terrorism attacks and charges have increased in this country over the last 18 years.”
Most of the 73 charges during that period involved “religiously motivated” terrorists, specifically followers of “jihadist groups” like the Islamic State and al-Qaida.
“However, over the last four years, there has been an increase in diversity of motivation, with ideologically motivated individuals also being charged with terrorism offences,” it said.
The report blamed “a volatile mix of geopolitical tensions and growing radicalization across ideological lines” for the increase in attacks and charges.
The RCMP has disrupted a series of terrorist plots over the past two years by supporters of ISIS, the terrorist group that controlled parts of Iraq and Syria until 2019.
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Among them was a planned bombing at a pro-Israel rally on Parliament Hill, and a conspiracy to attack Pride Month events in Calgary.
A father and son were charged over a foiled attack in Toronto, and a Pakistani student was arrested in Quebec while allegedly on his way to the U.S. to conduct a mass shooting at a Jewish centre.
Yet another Toronto youth was arrested on a terrorism peace bond in December, according to the RCMP. He was scheduled to appear in court next Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the FBI is investigating Shamsud-Din Jabbar’s 2023 visit to Ontario. On Jan. 1, the alleged ISIS supporter used a truck to mow down victims on Bourbon Street in New Orleans, killing 14.
In an appeal posted on X on Tuesday, the RCMP asked Canadians “to report any information which could be pertinent to the FBI’s investigation.”
A Global News investigation in November linked ISIS to a surging number of cases across Canada since 2023. Many involved youths, including minors as young as 15.
But in its report on Canadian terrorism charges, Insight Threat Intelligence said most successful attacks during the years it examined were carried out by those with ideological or mixed motives.
Supporters of misogynist Incel and far-right ideologies have conducted several killings in Canada, while a gunman who stormed Edmonton city hall last year left a manifesto about everything from water quality to Gaza.
“We have seen a statistically significant rise in the number of charges along with an increase in the number of terrorist attacks and people killed in those attacks,” the report said.
“However, it’s clear that Canada’s counter-terrorism police are far better at disrupting religiously-motivated terrorism than ideologically motivated terrorism.”
Co-authored by former Canadian Security Intelligence Service analyst Jessica Davis, the report said that was a result of “preconceived notions of what constituted terrorism in Canada.”
“It likely also has to do with international cooperation and intelligence sharing, priorities of our allies, lead intelligence, and the very nature of the threat.”
Insight acknowledged its figures did not account for Canadians charged outside the country, such as Adulrahman El Bahnasawy and Mohammed Khalifa, Toronto-area residents who were both convicted in the U.S.
“Canadians have frequently been arrested in the United States, Canada, as well as other countries such as Syria, Kenya, and Kuwait,” the report said.
The Canadian government’s official terrorist threat level has remained at “medium” for over a decade, meaning an attack “could occur.”
Last month, the RCMP joined its partners in the Five Eyes alliance in warning about “a rising prominence of young people and minors in counter-terrorism cases over the last few years.”
Stewart.Bell@globalnews.ca
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