What could Trump’s return to the White House mean for Latin America?

In the wake of the United States presidential election, international leaders have been scrambling to prepare for Donald Trump’s return to the world stage, as the divisive figure takes office for a second term.

But in Latin America, the stakes are particularly high. Trump has already signalled he may lean on Latin American countries to stem the flow of cross-border migration and leverage the region’s economic ties to accomplish the goals of his “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) platform, which calls for stringent border security and improving the domestic economy.

Some signs of tension have already begun to emerge, particularly over a threat by Trump to impose 25-percent tariffs on Mexico.

That may be a negotiating tactic, but from bolstering support for right-wing allies to taking a harsher stance on immigration, some analysts expect a second Trump term will generally be characterised by greater willingness to apply pressure to advance US priorities in the region.

Democracy and human rights

Argentina’s President Javier Milei is often compared to Trump. The two have already met since the November 5 US election, and some in the president-elect’s circle see Milei’s cost-cutting policies as a model to follow.

But Trump’s win also has right-wing figures in other parts of Latin America ecstatic.

After the election, Guatemalan special prosecutor Rafael Curruchiche – an opponent of the country’s progressive President Bernardo Arevalo – posted a photo of himself on social media in a swimming pool wearing a “Trump 2024” hat and flashing a thumbs-up next to a bottle of Don Julio tequila.

“[There are] 61 days until Donald Trump takes office in the US,” he said in a separate post, seemingly directed at his political rivals. “How nervous! If only they knew what was coming.”

Who “they” are is not explicitly spelled out, but Curruchiche has been a prominent figure in the effort to roll back Arevalo’s 2023 election win.

Curruchiche was also sanctioned by the outgoing administration of Democratic US President Joe Biden for allegedly obstructing anti-corruption efforts.

In countries like Guatemala and Brazil, Biden’s administration quickly came out in support of progressive leaders who won elections amid concern that right-wing forces might reverse the vote through legal manoeuvering or military force.

The region’s progressives have seen those moves as a welcome departure from the US’s long history of intervention on the side of anti-democratic forces and dictators.

“One of the good things about the Biden administration has been a more consistent approach to promoting democracy in the region. There are some exceptions, but in places like Guatemala they’ve stood firm on Arevalo’s election,” said Adam Isacson, director for defence oversight at the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA), a research organisation.

Now, Isacson believes Trump’s return to power could shift momentum in the other direction. With Biden leaving the White House and Trump returning, some politicians with histories of election denialism, like Curruchiche in Guatemala and the right-wing ex-president Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, are cheering someone they perceive to be a kindred spirit.

“The far right in Guatemala is sharpening its knives right now, because they know they’re going to have friends in the White House,” Isacson said.

Economy

During his presidential campaign, Trump praised tariffs – taxes on imports used to decrease foreign competition – as a cure-all for the economic problems faced by the US.

“Tariffs have always been Trump’s preferred tool. So those are forthcoming, I have no doubt,” said Juan Carlos Baker, who served as Mexico’s vice minister for foreign trade between 2016 and 2018.

Beyond their potential impact at home, Trump sees tariffs as a useful means of pressuring countries to comply with US demands on a variety of issues.

“This might mean saying that if Mexico doesn’t take action on migration, drugs or whatever else, some harsh trade decisions will be made,” said Baker.

He added that Trump could also wield economic leverage against countries that pursue closer relations with China, which has stepped up trade with Latin America in recent years. Trump might also consider greater use of import quotas to guard US industries from overseas competition.

“It’s easy to imagine him telling a country like Argentina that they have to export less beef, or cut off Chinese supplies of some product, and if they don’t do this then he’ll make sure the IMF [International Monetary Fund] plays hardball with them when it’s time to reexamine their outstanding debt,” Baker explained.

Crime and national security

The US has a long history of involvement in issues of crime and policing in Latin America, often in the form of support for state forces or promoting a “hard hand” approach to problems like drug trafficking.

With crime an issue of rising salience in the region, those pushing for a militarised approach with less regard for civil liberties may have a sympathetic ear in the White House.

Noah Bullock, the executive director of the rights group Cristosal in El Salvador, pointed to that country’s President Nayib Bukele as an example.

“Bukele has tried to position himself as an ideological partner of key members in the MAGA movement and would like to position himself as part of a bloc of far-right countries in Latin America that connect with the Trump administration,” said Bullock.

In El Salvador, Bukele has won widespread popularity for cracking down on gangs through massive shows of force, using security forces to sweep up and imprison thousands of people on suspicion of gang association with little due process.

Bukele – who once described himself as “the world’s coolest dictator” — has also suspended key civil liberties and expanded law enforcement powers.

While the policy has effectively combatted the influence of the gangs, allegations of rights abuses are widespread, and critics like Bullock say the exceptional measures are also being used to target dissent.

Though the Biden administration has expressed some concern for the state of civil rights in El Salvador, its criticism has been muted and collaboration with the government has continued. But Bullock worries that trend could worsen with Trump back in office.

“I think it’s pretty clear that if the US doesn’t make respect for political and civil rights [and] minimum standards against torture, forced disappearances and arbitrary detention a precondition for partnership, there will be little incentive for countries like El Salvador to uphold those standards,” he said.

Regional engagement

While some leaders are looking forward to potential collaboration with Trump, the president-elect’s brash style and frequent use of threats could be a cause of tension with others.

Trump and several figures likely to play a role in his administration have suggested that the US could carry out military strikes in Mexico targeting drug cartels, a move that would be sure to spark fierce backlash.

While that proposal was once seen as bluster, Renata Segura, a Latin America analyst at the nonprofit International Crisis Group, says that Mexico would see such strikes as an alarming breach of its sovereignty.

“This went from being a fringe opinion within the Republican Party to something that has been stated repeatedly and should be taken seriously, and I think the Mexicans are taking it very seriously,” said Segura.

“I don’t think Mexico is going to take this kind of thing lightly. Mexico has a strong sense of sovereignty and is not going to roll over and do whatever Trump wants,” she added.

Segura also says that Trump will likely prioritise blocking migration from countries experiencing violence and instability.

But, she added, he may have little interest in efforts to address root causes.

Segura pointed to Haiti, where powerful armed gangs, some with ties to the country’s political and business elite, have exerted increasing control over large stretches of the country. An estimated 85 percent of the capital Port-au-Prince is currently under the control of the gangs, according to figures cited by the United Nations.

Violence in Haiti spiked in the wake of the 2021 assassination of former President Jovenel Moise, and the country is still struggling to hold elections and implement democratic norms.

For Segura, the Caribbean country ranks “top of the list of worries” during a new Trump presidency.

“Haiti has been going through a protracted political and security crisis since 2021, and the US has been one of the leading voices in trying to channel the efforts of the international community,” she said.

That has included financial support for a UN-backed contingent of Kenyan police sent to Haiti to help with security. That effort – controversial given the fraught history of foreign interventions in Haiti – has struggled thus far to make an impact.

Segura expects that the Trump administration will likely end the US role as the main supporter of that mission. While she acknowledged that US intervention is not necessarily a positive, she pointed out that issues could arise as a result of a US withdrawal.

“Thus far the US has been the only country to put their money where their mouth is, and Haiti could be left on its own if the US decides to disengage,” she explained.