US officials estimate that Iran possesses the largest arsenal of ballistic missiles in the Middle East, with over 3,000 units. Some of these high-speed missiles can reach Israeli territory in as little as 15 minutes.
However, only medium-range ballistic missiles—those capable of traveling over 1,000 km—can strike Israel from Iran. According to Iran’s semi-official news agency ISNA, the country has nine different missile types with that capability. “Most estimates I have seen put the number of Iranian missiles capable of hitting Israel closer to 2,000,” Dan Caldwell, a former senior adviser to US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, this week posted on X.
While much of Iran’s missile arsenal remains classified, ISNA published a graphic in April last year showcasing some of its key weapons. These included the Sejil, which can reach speeds of over 17,000 km/h and has a range of 2,500 km; the Kheibar, with a 2,000 km range; and the Haj Qasem, with a range of 1,400 km.
A recent threat assessment by the US military found that Iran fields a “large quantity” of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones capable of striking targets across the region. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed Iran intends to continue expanding this capacity.
In a video statement on Friday, Netanyahu said Iran had accelerated production and was aiming to manufacture 300 ballistic missiles per month—potentially producing 20,000 missiles over the next six years.
Israel vs. Iran: A military comparison
According to the latest estimates from SIPRI’s Military Balance, Israel’s defence budget in 2023 was more than double that of Iran—$27.5 billion compared to $10.3 billion.
Iran’s missile programme draws heavily from North Korean and Russian designs, and has reportedly benefited from Chinese assistance, according to the Arms Control Association, a Washington-based non-profit. It now has 610,000 active personnel and 350,000 reserves with the addition of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Iran also has 334 combat-capable aircraft, as well as air defence systems such as the Russian S-300, which has limited capabilities when it comes to defending against ballistic missiles.
Israel, for its part, has developed one of the most advanced missile arsenals in the world, combining decades of homegrown innovation with strong support from the US.
At the top end of this arsenal are long-range ballistic missiles such as the Jericho II and Jericho III. While the exact numbers are classified, the Jericho II is believed to be nuclear-capable with a range of around 1,500 kilometres, while the Jericho III may be able to reach targets over 6,000 kilometres away, giving Israel a strategic deterrent that extends far beyond its borders.
Alongside these long-range systems, Israel has hundreds of short- and medium-range missiles designed for quick, precise strikes. These include the Predator Hawk, which can hit targets up to 300 kilometres away, and cruise missiles such as the Popeye and the Delilah, which are launched from the air or sea.
In practice, each incoming missile usually requires its own interceptor missile to neutralise it. For example, if Iran were to launch 100 missiles, Israel would need to fire almost the same number of interceptors to stop them.
“The types of interceptors that are required to shoot down ballistic missiles are expensive and difficult to produce in mass quantities,” Dan Caldwell posted on X this week, adding that he think it likely that Israel and the US “are going to have start rationing their interceptors soon (if they haven’t already) – further increasing the effectiveness of even smaller Iranian barrages.”
Its multibillion-dollar military arsenal also includes around 340 combat aircraft—among them advanced US-made F-35 stealth fighters—46 helicopters, a combined 634,500 active and reserve personnel, and a multilayered air defence system.
Approximately 370 ballistic missiles have been launched by Iran at Israel since the conflict began on Friday, claims the Israel Defence Forces (IDF). On Saturday, an Israeli military official said that the country’s air defence shield had an “80 to 90% success rate”, while stressing that “no system is 100% effective”—implying that some Iranian missiles had breached Israeli air defences, Reuters reported.
The Iron Dome, Israel’s well-known air defence system, is just one component of a broader system designed to counter a range of aerial threats, from rockets and missiles to drones and aircraft.
The first layer, the Iron Dome, intercepts short-range rockets and artillery shells—typically within 70 kilometres—and is primarily used to protect civilian areas.
Next is David’s Sling, which targets medium-range ballistic missiles launched from distances between 100 and 200 kilometres.
Finally, the Arrow system—comprising Arrow 2 and Arrow 3—provides long-range defence. Arrow 2 is designed to intercept missiles in the upper atmosphere, roughly 50 kilometres above ground and within a 100-kilometre radius. Arrow 3 pushes that boundary into space, capable of intercepting missiles at distances of up to 2,400 kilometres.
Israel’s Iron Dome, David’s Sling and Arrow systems are all missile interceptors. This means that they are not designed to launch attacks, but rather to detect and destroy incoming missiles before they reach their targets.
In practice, each incoming missile usually requires its own interceptor missile to neutralise it. For example, if Iran were to launch 100 missiles, Israel would likely need to fire almost 100 interceptors to stop them — one for each threat.
However, despite all these protection layers, analysts argue that Israel’s decision to target the heart of the Iranian regime is raising the stakes, as the latter could respond by striking other targets in neighbouring countries, thus escalating the conflict in the region, or by attempting to block trade in the Persian Gulf.
“If Israel continues to attack its nuclear and military facilities, Iran has a strong incentive to put together a rudimentary nuclear weapon as quickly as it can to deter any further damage of its facilities and demonstrate that it is capable of defending its sovereignty,” wrote Dr Marion Messmer, a senior research fellow at Chatham House, in an analysis.
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