One Nation MP Barnaby Joyce is right to draw a clear distinction between Alternative for Germany (AfD) and One Nation. The parties have completely different origins and very different compositions. The AfD began as an economically rationalist objection to the European monetary union. Its concern over migration developed later. One Nation was built first and foremost on cultural anxiety – the fear of being “swamped by Asians” – with the economic dimension more recent.
More importantly, some AfD representatives have past or present associations with fully fledged neo-Nazi groups rather than parroting online antisemitic conspiracies.
Yet despite their differences, both parties have found themselves in the political niche termed populism. Which is, I’m increasingly convinced, another euphemism applied to parties that have a deeply working-class sensibility by people who, rich or poor, are part of the educated cultural elite.
The sensibility is blowing up every convention of how politics is done. Not the political issues themselves, which can vary over time. (Though, unlike some other analysts, I believe One Nation voters when they say their No. 1 issue is immigration. When voters keep on telling you their main concern, it’s only manners to take them at their word.)
But the sensibility – the core of these parties’ emotional appeal – is game-changing. Where issues can be dealt with using conventional political methods, a new communications aesthetic requires politicians to change the way they act and speak. Over time, it might even change the candidates who are chosen in preselection.
This week, two men demonstrated what’s now cutting through. Warren Pickering, the One Nation candidate for the Victorian seat of Pakenham, held a press conference to confess to the sort of past that convention says is a political disqualifier. And the AfD’s Ronny Kumpf – also known as “Porno Ronny” – became a member of the state parliament of Saxony-Anhalt.
They speak like working-class people … They might mangle their words – Pauline Hanson does all the time – but they don’t mince them.
By now, Pickering’s story will be known to most readers. On Tuesday, he held a press conference triggered by his ex-partner’s revelations that he had taken drugs and been – in his own handwritten words – “sexually deviant” in the past. During the press conference, he admitted to the drugs and experimenting sexually during a relationship, as well as repeatedly losing his licence for drink-driving.
He was flanked by his adult daughter and stepson. The latter spoke of a turbulent childhood with a depressed and drug-addicted mother, but testified that Pickering had been a source of (relative) stability in difficult times.
One Nation party director James Ashby summed up with a killer dig at the ranks of lawyers and union organisers among the establishment parties, quipping that One Nation doesn’t grow its candidates in a Petri dish.
By the end of the press conference, it was clear that Pickering – One Nation’s leader in Victoria – will win Pakenham. The angry ex is a relatable trope. A roaring 20s just shows he wasn’t born with a will to run for preselection – refreshing in a field of born-to-rule types.
Chaotic home life is deeply familiar in lower-income electorates, such as the one Pickering is seeking to represent, where divorce, separation and de facto relationship rates are higher than in more advantaged areas. Pickering nailed the vibe that he is trustworthy – or at least can be trusted to represent his electorate – because he has lived a life much like theirs.
The fact that he’d done his best to be a father along the way – and that his kids felt strongly enough about his integrity to come out swinging in his defence – was really just icing on the cake. The party boy with the heart of gold. With a redemption arc worthy of a novel. Move over, JD Vance – it’s a very Australian Hillbilly Elegy.
Over in Germany, a cast of characters with colourful pasts is less redeemed, but still got elected. Porno Ronny is just the one with the best nickname. He had a brief stint as an “adult movie” actor, and graphic photos have made it into the public sphere to prove it. Another newly elected representative, Phillipp-Anders Rau, was addicted to cocaine, declared a bankrupt, came in contact with the law as a result of a theft (and also had a stint as a porn actor – those Germans!) as well as faking his high school leaving certificate to get into university. The most shocking part of that is that he went to university at all. That’s the aberration from the vibe of these parties and the new breed of leaders.
This is the new archetype we’re going to have to get used to. They speak like working-class people and have lived like working-class people because they are them. And they’re disrupting the way other politicians have to speak to cut through.
They might mangle their words – Pauline Hanson does all the time – but they don’t mince them. The old rules for how a politician must speak and act were set by people with cultural power, which these guys don’t have. Parties like this have given up on clean-cut types, most of whom (One Nation’s Hunter candidate, Mike Newman, is an obvious exception) are saving themselves for a party that is less controversial in the boardroom. After years of feeling that “woke” was preventing them from speaking their minds, the populist parties have created a post-woke paradigm.
Pickering and Porno Ronny are just the latest reminder that the establishment still hasn’t fully grasped who they’re dealing with. Calling their policies anti-worker might resonate with educated wage-slaves. For people who subcontract and run their own businesses, it’s less persuasive.
They’re also not going to be wooed with the type of culture-wars pedantry that Angus Taylor’s anti-flag-burning foray attempted. They want real change, not tokenism.
When Trump, the original populist of the wave that’s sweeping the world, was re-elected at the end of 2024, commentators declared a vibe shift. But it’s not a cultural vibe that’s shifted. The real change is one of attitude and political sensibility. How competitive the major parties can be in working-class areas will depend on understanding the new aesthetic.
Parnell Palme McGuinness is an insights and advocacy strategist. She has done work for the Liberal Party and the German Greens and is a senior fellow at the Centre for Independent Studies. She is also an advisory board member of Australians For Prosperity, which is part-funded by the coal industry.
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